The day after 22 Bahman

The nuking of Iran's dissent

Ahmadinejad, master of fear and paranoia, may have won the day. But it was a pyrrhic victory

Ali Ansari, guardian.co.uk, Friday 12 February 2010 22.00 GMT

Rumours of the death of Iran's green movement have been largely ­exaggerated. Admittedly, the events of this week were badly mishandled by the protesters – as many have been quick to acknowledge. But the rigorously choreographed theatrics of the government can hardly be ­regarded as a triumph for the regime.

Following the disturbances around the death of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri and the violence that continued through to Ashura in December 2009, the green movement determined that the next great show of force was to be yesterday's 31st anniversary of the Islamic ­Revolution. Yet while people might debate the size of the opposing crowds, one thing seems certain: this time the government mastered and largely controlled the narrative.

It had been a long time in preparation. Shaken by the events of Ashura, the government moved to arrest potential troublemakers on a far wider scale than at any time since the first protests in June last year. These arrests have proved particularly effective in targeting the local organisers, including student leaders who have been essential for grassroots mobilisation and co-ordination.

With these people removed, and despite the lofty rhetoric of more senior leaders, the movement appeared dangerously rudderless. For good ­measure, and in an apparent effort to stress its seriousness, the government embellished its hardline rhetoric with a couple of swift executions and an announcement that the death sentence had been imposed on a further nine protesters.

On another level, it moved to block text messaging and the internet, including an attempt to suspend access to Googlemail. Iranian activists regularly find ways to circumvent such obstructions, but on this occasion the targeting was specific, with a view to curtailing any challenge to the anniversary celebrations. Additional measures to block roads were organised early, to minimise opposition crowds, while government supporters were bused in from around the country. Media coverage was restricted to state media and selected foreign journalists, largely from non-western organisations.

However, just to be extra sure, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threw in his media manipulation tool of choice: Iran's nuclear programme. In the days leading up to the anniversary, Ahmadinejad suddenly announced that he would be willing to accept the west's offer to enrich Iran's uranium. But within 24 hours he announced that Iran had decided to enrich the uranium itself. This had the desired effect. Western leaders huffed and puffed and talked of sanctions, while others preoccupied themselves with the meaning of it all and whether confrontation was now back on the agenda.

The meaning of it all, of course, is that foreign policy has always been ­subservient to domestic needs and that the deliberate raising of the nuclear spectre is intended to divert attention at home and abroad. At home the government believes that the spirit of confrontation can help rebuild a badly damaged legitimacy, while the heightened preoccupation with the nuclear crisis can be used to convince Iranians that the west has no real interest in their human rights and democratic aspirations. Like all good demagogues, Ahmadinejad knows how to peddle fear and exploit paranoia, whether it resides in the east or the west. That is why he raised the stakes again during his speech, announcing brazenly that if Iran wanted to do so, it could build a bomb. It is good politics.

But is it a good strategy? The government may have won the public relations battle on the day, but it came at some considerable cost. This was a carefully choreographed piece of theatre, with an extremely high security presence, ruthlessly exercised and with its fair share of brutality. The green movement was outmanoeuvred, but it was there. As one protester said yesterday on a Persian-language website: "It wasn't that we were few in number; we were aimless."

The protesters may be beaten and bruised, but the Iranian government could not prevent the world from witnessing the brutality that it continues to exercise against its citizens. For the green movement, the real test of its durability and inner strength is about to begin as it reflects on an opportunity lost. For the government, the test will be if it truly appreciates and understands the nature, cause and fragility of this most pyrrhic of victories. Judging by Ahmadinejad's speech, he has clearly forgotten nothing and learnt nothing.

Credits: The Guardian: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/feb/12/nuking-iran-dissent-ahmadinejad-fear

Cowardice and Courage

Editorial, New York Times, February 11, 2010

Iran’s autocrats were determined to use Thursday’s anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution to show that they are still in control and have the support of Iran’s people. Their ruthless campaign of violence and intimidation against a largely peaceful — and extremely courageous — opposition proves just the opposite.

The government claims that the overwhelming number of people who came out to demonstrate were government supporters. State television showed live footage of hundreds of thousands of people, some carrying Iranian flags and pictures of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, converging in Tehran’s main square. A far more important indicator is the level of repression it needed to keep protestors — galvanized by June’s fraudulent presidential election — to a minimum.


In the run-up to the anniversary celebration, hundreds of people, including family members of prominent politicians and scores of journalists, have been arrested. On Thursday, an unusually large contingent of security forces, including masked Revolutionary Guards special units armed with assault rifles, closed off streets and kept opposition groups from the main square where the celebration took place.



Opposition supporters still showed up, even in conservative cities around the country. And they did take risks. Foreign journalists were restricted in covering the event. But opposition Web sites reported that security forces fired gunshots and tear gas at supporters of the opposition leader, Mir Hussein Moussavi, and that his wife, Zahra Rahnavard, had been beaten by plainclothes agents with batons.


While that was happening in the shadows, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was on center stage announcing new advances in Iran’s nuclear program — a cynical effort to divert attention from his government’s repression and economic and political failures. More than three decades after Iranians overthrew the United States-backed shah, the country remains a living contradiction between its revolutionary ideals — justice, independence and self-sufficiency — and its shameful practice.


Credits: The New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/12/opinion/12fri2.html